Has Kim Bought the Farm? |History: The Roadmap to the Future--Asia

Has North Korean President, Kim Jong-il, bought the farm? Is he dead?

There are varying reports on his condition, depending on the source. The North Koreans, unsurprisingly, are stating that things are basically normal. South Korea has reported that Kim has had a stroke, but is still alive. The Japanese, and at least one Chinese official, have stated that Kim has been having seizures.

One thing many agree on is that Kim Jong-il has not named a new leader to succeed him should he die or be incapacitated.

If Kim croaks and there is a power struggle among the elite to become the next Dear Leader, then that could be an opportunity for 'hard diplomacy' on the part of the United States to get North Korea to either transform into something resembling China or Vietnam, or to push for a complete overthrow of Communist authoritarian rule.

Alternatively, oppressed North Koreans could see a chance for revolution, in which case things will be even more precarious as the leadership tries to hold onto power.

If somehow North Korea collapses, and is then reunified with South Korea. The geopolitical ramifications for East Asia would be huge.

For starters, Korea (run by South Korea) would be in charge of developing a massive portion of their country. The Korean economy and development could stagnate as the South struggles to bring the North up to speed, similar to what has happened with West and East Germany after the reunification of that country. Korea's investment would be directed more internally and domestically rather than among its neighbors in the region.

Similarly, Japan and China would divert investment into the former North Korea. Both because neither want a poor and democratic, and thus potentially riotous, neighbor in the region. As with Zimbabwe's effect on southern Africa, North Korea dragging down Korea could make all Northeast Asia seem unattractive (though considering Japan's traditional clout and China's growing strength this is not such a threat).

However, as Northeast Asia diverts more attention to [North] Korea, Southeast Asia could be even more sidelined in terms of investment from the wealthier Northeast Asian. For some countries, such as the Philippines, in which the West is generally reluctant to invest, the loss of Northeast Asian investment would have a major impact on the development of Southeast Asia.

However, and upside would be that a unified Korea would entail that their would then be only one international pariah in East Asia. Burma.

With North Korea no longer a source of global scorn, pressure will be put more on Burma to reform, not least among Burma's fellow ASEAN states. With both North Korea and Burma reformed, work toward both Southeast Asian and East Asian economic integration could pick up speed.

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"Doubts mount over N Korea's Kim" (BBC)

For instance, currently the EU is unwilling to negotiate a free trade agreement with ASEAN--because Burma is a member of the Association. North Korea is also subject to trade embargos. With North Korea annexed by South Korea, and with Burma's junta overthrown, there would be less impediment for East Asia, Northeast and Southeast, forming an economic union which would promote free trade in the region, along with forming a strong negotiating position to create trade deals with other countries or trade blocs.

A lot is riding on what will happen after Kim Jong-il.