Showing posts with label india. Show all posts
Showing posts with label india. Show all posts

Thursday, July 24, 2008

Prime Minister Mayawati? Is the Obama Factor already taking effect?

Finally, a blog post on the topic of India. Yes, South Asia is also covered by this blog.

India is an ancient country which, whether Indians want to acknowledge it or not, is plagued by caste based racism. India's political and (especially) business leadership is largely headed by members of the upper castes. Meanwhile, those from lower castes or dalits (formerly 'untouchables,' and not even warranting a caste they are considered to be so low) tend to be more represented in menial jobs than their percentage of the population would suggest. As in all countries with racism--which is all of them--racial prejudice and discrimination are at the highest levels in the rural and less developed regions of the country.

Which makes it all the more surprising that Uttar Pradesh, the poorest state in India, has elected into the state government a dalit. And not only that, but that dalit leader, Mayawati, is being tipped by some as the next prime minister (which in India is the top political position) of all India.

Kanpur is the largest city in the Northern Indian state of Uttar Pradesh.

Mayawati has risen to power rapidly in the state, and her Bahujan Samaj is making headway in other Indian states, too. So, does Mayawati stand a chance of becoming Indian Prime Minister?

There are several things in Mayawati's support. For one, Mayawati is a shrewd and intelligent politician, and should not be underestimated on that account alone. Furthermore, Mayawati, according to the British Broadcasting Corporation, tends to increase in power during times of turmoil. If the current semi-crises in high oil and food prices don't abate, India will have plenty of turmoil.

Then there is the question of the 'Obama Factor.' The United States, for the first time in that country's history, has a 'black' man as a major contender for the Presidency. As 'blacks' are generally to the United States what dalits are to India--at least from a historical point of view--the United States, via Obama, could be taking the lead in changing nations' perceptions of their downtrodden racial groups.

Now the fact should be pointed out that Mayawati rose to power in Uttar Pradesh before Obama became big and popular on a global scale. However, the Indian politician's success across India has come more recently.
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In any case, if the United States has to have Obama as President, then changing attitudes to 'race' could be one advantage an Obama Presidency would bring. Ushering in a new era where 'even' a dalit, an untouchable, can become the preeminent politician in India.

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Found this article interesting? Check out:
History: The Roadmap to the Future.
History: The Roadmap to the Future--Africa.
History: The Roadmap to the Future--Asia.
History: The Roadmap to the Future--Europe.
History: The Roadmap to the Future--Latin America.

Or:
The Science Fiction Channel + Technorium.
The Vegetarian Diaries + Biologeel.

Thursday, June 26, 2008

Reasons Why ASEAN Should Integrate.

To Economically Compete with China and India.

Individually, no member state of ASEAN, the Association of South East Asian Nations, even Indonesia, can compete with China or India, countries which have around a fifth of the world's population each. Foreign investors are drawn to the enormous market potential of China and India to the detriment of Southeast Asian nations, which are in essence overlooked. More investment brings more money with which to build more infrastructure which makes more jobs which those countries' large populations are eager to fill for low pay, which brings more investment which brings more money, etc. etc. Southeast Asia, with smaller markets and populations, is no longer part of this loop, and were unable to develop sufficiently enough in the 1980s and 1990s the way South Korea and Taiwan did to be capable of standing on their own feet without large amounts of foreign investment today.

However, if ASEAN became a fully integrated economic bloc (note, even the European Union has not attained this status yet), ASEAN would still be smaller than China and India, but would still have a much larger population than even Indonesia, with a combined population over 600 million for all ten states. The region would still straddle the strategic location between Northeast and South Asia, and the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Maritime trade from Europe, Africa, South and Southwestern Asia to Northeast Asia would travel through the Strait of Malacca and the South China Sea, and vice versa. The region would produce enough food for all of ASEAN. Thailand and Vietnam are major rice exporters, while the Philippines and Indonesia now import the staple. Although many ASEAN states are reluctant to eradicate tariffs between themselves, being of the opinion that their neighbors would be competitors and not allies, ASEAN as a fully-integrated bloc would be able to withstand Chinese, Indian, American, and European pressure, and would be able to distribute the economic growth of all member states of the association so that all members develop.

To Stand Their Ground Against Chinese or Indian Aggression.

The benefit of a unified ASEAN has already been shown in the dispute over ownership of the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea. China would have been able to pressure any of the Southeast Asian contenders for all or part of the island group. However, rather than deliberating with China on an individual basis, ASEAN was chosen to deal with China--and was able to force China into a less belligerent stance.

China and India are both nuclear powers with the two largest militaries in the world which also happen to be among the most powerful militaries on Earth, too. Traditionally and so far, Southeast Asian nations' habit is to be submissive to their giant neighbors and 'not make waves.'

Yet this may not be an option in some cases. Although Vietnam was able to repel a Chinese invasion, that was when China was much poorer than today. Together, a militarily unified ASEAN could defend its members, sandwiched as they are between China and India. Even indirectly, if China and India wage war with each other, they would be bound to either try to bend Southeast Asia into becoming allies, or would be more ruthless and just try to invade Southeast Asia and use it as a staging ground from which to attack their enemy (China or India). Southeast Asia doesn't have to be pushed around if they are big enough to withstand India or China.

To Engender Internal Peace.

One of ASEAN's original goals, a more unified and integrated ASEAN would be able to erase the idea that one Southeast Asian country would wage war with another Southeast Asian country. The Philippines and Malaysia have a dispute over Sabah. Malaysia and Singapore have a dispute over an islet. Several ASEAN states have disputes over the Spratly and Paracel Islands, along with China and Taiwan. For a completely integrated ASEAN, hostilities over these disputes would be as muted as border disputes between California and Nevada or Kentucky and Tennessee.

If some Muslims in Malaysia and Indonesia become radicalized, while they might be a major force in their own countries, for all of ASEAN, those Islamists would only be a minority.

A unified ASEAN could also lead to the end of the military junta in Burma, the Communist regimes in Vietnam and Laos, the autocracies in Singapore, Cambodia, Brunei, and Malaysia, and the corrupt democracies in the Philippines, Indonesia, and Thailand. The ASEAN government could draw from the good aspects of the members--such as the efficiency and order of Singapore and the democracy of Thailand--while excising the bad aspects of the current governments. The states could draw from their collective advantages and minimize their political shortcomings.

Conclusion

The member states of ASEAN have many obstacles to overcome. They are divided by history, religion, and culture. Many of them view the others as competitors rather than partners who can mutually help each other develop. Besides Singapore, there is a general lack of interest among most ASEAN state governments for strong integration of the association. However, for the sake of all Southeast Asia, a unified ASEAN is in the interest of all ten ASEAN states: Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, Singapore, Vietnam, Laos, Burma, and Cambodia. Divided they will all be much weaker than they would be united.

--------
Found this article interesting? Check out:
History: The Roadmap to the Future.
History: The Roadmap to the Future--Africa.
History: The Roadmap to the Future--Europe.
History: The Roadmap to the Future--Latin America.

Or:
The Science Fiction Channel + Technorium.
The Vegetarian Diaries.

Tag this post with:
Delicious Logo Delicious Digg Logo Digg Technorati Logo Technorati reddit Logo reddit Facebook Logo Facebook Stumble Upon Toolbar StumbleUpon Furl Logo Furl Digg Logo blinklist

--------
Found this article interesting? Check out:
History: The Roadmap to the Future.
History: The Roadmap to the Future--Africa.
History: The Roadmap to the Future--Asia.
History: The Roadmap to the Future--Europe.
History: The Roadmap to the Future--Latin America.

Or:
The Science Fiction Channel + Technorium.
The Vegetarian Diaries + Biologeel.