Mr. Hu's Neighborhood. (Second Part) |History: The Roadmap to the Future--Asia

In the previous article, the effects of China's rapid rise on Japan were discussed. In this piece, the effects on China's smaller and weaker neighbors will be explored.

Japan is the second largest economy on Earth, and the largest in Asia. It has a population of some 140 million people and one of the most advanced militaries on the planet. Yet even Japan is facing the threat of an ascendant China, a China which is not all that amicable toward Japan, due to historic conflicts and the Communists' using that history to incite antipathy toward Japan to preserve stability at home. However, if Japan--a powerful country--is already being threatened by China, then how much more are the smaller nations in East Asia being threatened? To be discussed below are: South Korea, Mongolia, the Philippines, and Taiwan.

At several points in its history, the Korean Peninsula has been under the thumb of China, either as a protectorate or as a full-fledged Chinese territory. For much of its history, Korea, along with most East Asian nations, was a tributary of China, although in effect this amounted to little more than having a free trade agreement with the Middle Kingdom. (It should be pointed out that economic strong-arming is a form of exertion of power).

South Korea has performed admirably in its recent history, rising from a poor, third world country, to a de facto developed state, even as its once more prosperous northern neighbor has descended into an economic cesspool. With forty million people, South Korea has one of the largest economies in Asia, and easily provides enough food for its people. Yet those forty million people pale in comparison to China's 1.3 billion, and South Korea is practically an island off the coast of China, as the border with North Korea is basically closed. China has used historic precedent to justify its occupation of Tibet, East Turkmenistan (Xinjiang), and Inner Mongolia, and uses historic precedent to argue that it owns the Paracel and Spratly Islands in the South China Sea, although the latter are far from China's borders. A similar use of precedent could be used by China to take over South Korea.

Mongolia has rough relations with China, which it frequently has had for millennia. It bears some similarity to Korea. Mongolia was once part of China--gaining independence as recently as 1921. More to the point, part of 'Mongolia' is already part of China, and dubbed 'Inner Mongolia.' Chinese investment is high in Mongolia, and Mongolia is already economically dependent on that Chinese capital flowing into their country. While it would be natural for China to invest in a poor neighbor, it is also poignant that Mongolia has a tiny population, a fair amount of land, and considerable natural resources. Again using the historic precedent argument, having China take over the remainder of Mongolia is not such a far stretch.

The Philippines, as opposed to the other states mentioned in this article, was not historically a part of China, either as a protectorate or part of China proper. However, the Philippines' relations with China are just as threatening for the Philippines as South Korea's and Mongolia's relations with China are for them. The Philippines was one of the few countries more openly opposed to China's Communist government in the last century, and sent troops in both the Korean and Vietnam Wars, and served as a base in the latter. As with Mongolia, China is a major investor in the Philippines, although the Philippines' receives a relatively small amount of investment due to the perception that it is a highly corrupt country (to be fair, the Philippines in 2007 was not abnormal for its region, according to Transparency International, even though other South East Asian states receive far more foreign investment). Additionally, the Philippines has a sizable number of 'overseas Chinese,' who are not assimilated, and there is a lot of conflict between these ethnic Chinese and ethnic Malay Filipinos. China could invade under the guise of protecting 'their people' from vicious attacks.

Potentially most threatened by China's rise is Taiwan, which much of the world officially considers to be part of China (solely for the purpose of being able to trade with China--another case of economic strong-arming) whilst recognizing Taiwan's de facto sovereignty (currently). As with South Korea, Taiwan was able to turn from a poor, third world country (and one with a high proportion of refugees, to boot) into a developed state. And as with South Korea, Taiwan's small population and close proximity to China put it at risk of invasion. Ruled by China for centuries, the island of Formosa (Taiwan) was ceded to Japan after the Sino-Japanese War, but given to the Republic of China after the defeat of Japan in World War 2. The Taiwanese could validly argue that either their island's future should be decided by Japan (due to the wording of the treaty ending the Sino-Japanese War) or by the Republic of China (which is what Taiwan officially is). However, China definitely does not have to honor that legal basis. Of the countries mentioned here, Taiwan is the one most set to become part of China soon.

From Northeast Asia to Southeast Asia, China's smaller, weaker neighbors are threatened both by China's potential and its bullish attitude both in history and today.

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