Thursday, June 26, 2008

Reasons Why ASEAN Should Integrate.

To Economically Compete with China and India.

Individually, no member state of ASEAN, the Association of South East Asian Nations, even Indonesia, can compete with China or India, countries which have around a fifth of the world's population each. Foreign investors are drawn to the enormous market potential of China and India to the detriment of Southeast Asian nations, which are in essence overlooked. More investment brings more money with which to build more infrastructure which makes more jobs which those countries' large populations are eager to fill for low pay, which brings more investment which brings more money, etc. etc. Southeast Asia, with smaller markets and populations, is no longer part of this loop, and were unable to develop sufficiently enough in the 1980s and 1990s the way South Korea and Taiwan did to be capable of standing on their own feet without large amounts of foreign investment today.

However, if ASEAN became a fully integrated economic bloc (note, even the European Union has not attained this status yet), ASEAN would still be smaller than China and India, but would still have a much larger population than even Indonesia, with a combined population over 600 million for all ten states. The region would still straddle the strategic location between Northeast and South Asia, and the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Maritime trade from Europe, Africa, South and Southwestern Asia to Northeast Asia would travel through the Strait of Malacca and the South China Sea, and vice versa. The region would produce enough food for all of ASEAN. Thailand and Vietnam are major rice exporters, while the Philippines and Indonesia now import the staple. Although many ASEAN states are reluctant to eradicate tariffs between themselves, being of the opinion that their neighbors would be competitors and not allies, ASEAN as a fully-integrated bloc would be able to withstand Chinese, Indian, American, and European pressure, and would be able to distribute the economic growth of all member states of the association so that all members develop.

To Stand Their Ground Against Chinese or Indian Aggression.

The benefit of a unified ASEAN has already been shown in the dispute over ownership of the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea. China would have been able to pressure any of the Southeast Asian contenders for all or part of the island group. However, rather than deliberating with China on an individual basis, ASEAN was chosen to deal with China--and was able to force China into a less belligerent stance.

China and India are both nuclear powers with the two largest militaries in the world which also happen to be among the most powerful militaries on Earth, too. Traditionally and so far, Southeast Asian nations' habit is to be submissive to their giant neighbors and 'not make waves.'

Yet this may not be an option in some cases. Although Vietnam was able to repel a Chinese invasion, that was when China was much poorer than today. Together, a militarily unified ASEAN could defend its members, sandwiched as they are between China and India. Even indirectly, if China and India wage war with each other, they would be bound to either try to bend Southeast Asia into becoming allies, or would be more ruthless and just try to invade Southeast Asia and use it as a staging ground from which to attack their enemy (China or India). Southeast Asia doesn't have to be pushed around if they are big enough to withstand India or China.

To Engender Internal Peace.

One of ASEAN's original goals, a more unified and integrated ASEAN would be able to erase the idea that one Southeast Asian country would wage war with another Southeast Asian country. The Philippines and Malaysia have a dispute over Sabah. Malaysia and Singapore have a dispute over an islet. Several ASEAN states have disputes over the Spratly and Paracel Islands, along with China and Taiwan. For a completely integrated ASEAN, hostilities over these disputes would be as muted as border disputes between California and Nevada or Kentucky and Tennessee.

If some Muslims in Malaysia and Indonesia become radicalized, while they might be a major force in their own countries, for all of ASEAN, those Islamists would only be a minority.

A unified ASEAN could also lead to the end of the military junta in Burma, the Communist regimes in Vietnam and Laos, the autocracies in Singapore, Cambodia, Brunei, and Malaysia, and the corrupt democracies in the Philippines, Indonesia, and Thailand. The ASEAN government could draw from the good aspects of the members--such as the efficiency and order of Singapore and the democracy of Thailand--while excising the bad aspects of the current governments. The states could draw from their collective advantages and minimize their political shortcomings.

Conclusion

The member states of ASEAN have many obstacles to overcome. They are divided by history, religion, and culture. Many of them view the others as competitors rather than partners who can mutually help each other develop. Besides Singapore, there is a general lack of interest among most ASEAN state governments for strong integration of the association. However, for the sake of all Southeast Asia, a unified ASEAN is in the interest of all ten ASEAN states: Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, Singapore, Vietnam, Laos, Burma, and Cambodia. Divided they will all be much weaker than they would be united.

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Found this article interesting? Check out:
History: The Roadmap to the Future.
History: The Roadmap to the Future--Africa.
History: The Roadmap to the Future--Asia.
History: The Roadmap to the Future--Europe.
History: The Roadmap to the Future--Latin America.

Or:
The Science Fiction Channel + Technorium.
The Vegetarian Diaries + Biologeel.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Actually the malaysian people and singaporeans has already ended the dispute, malaysia gets middle rocks and singapore gets pedra branca.

The dispute between Malaysia and philippines over Sabah seems like it will never end.It might turn into a war though, who knows.

Because their culture are so diverse it seems likely that a "unified" ASEAN would be almost impossible though(proof: look at Union Europe, they are not that united you know)

But let's be optimistic here, why not uniting: India, China, Malaysia, Singapore,Thailand, Taiwan, Indonesia, Indonesia, South Korea, Japan, etc etc?

A united ASIA will be more powerful! I wonder why didn't you think about this!

Vasanth Seshadri said...

You need not be so threatened by India and China. India and China are growth engines which can boost ASEAN. For instance, despite the US slipping into recession, China and India have cushioned ASEAN so far.

Al said...

To Konakon:
I agree with your statement that a united Asia would be more powerful -- but I think the idea about adding India and China into the mix would be that they'd swamp out any attention for the smaller nations (whereas ASEAN probably provides them a forum to get attention/support for some of the smaller member states).