Mr. Hu's Neighborhood. (Third Part)

In the two preceding articles, the point was made that China's rise is being viewed as a challenge and a threat by the other nations of East Asia. Now will be discussed Asian states which are already under China's thrall or are setting themselves up for it, along with the conclusion to the series.

East Asian countries currently more-or-less free from China's influence are watching their giant neighbor closely for signs of a more belligerent Beijing. And as the Chinese economy expands, China does seem to be taking on a more militant and commanding tone toward its neighbors. But what about states already greatly influenced and dependent on Chinese support, notably North Korea and Burma. The Soviet Union had East Germany and Poland. Communist China has North Korea and Burma.

North Korea is almost completely dependent on China for its survival. Even with Beijing propping it up, the Hermit Kingdom is on the verge of destitution. While North Korea has nuclear weapons--sort of, their attempt did not fully explode--it people are starving to death. The 'Dear Leader' has already ticked off China quite a bit, bringing the United States to look even closer at the region, and pressuring the country to increase an American military--and diplomatic--presence in East Asia. If China becomes too fed up and the current North Korean President dies, China could ignore Kim's successor and just invade North Korea, potentially strongarming Kim into bequeathing his country to China on his deathbed--or say that was the case. As is, North Korea is already currently a de facto Chinese protectorate.

The other country, Burma, is less under the thumb of China, in part due to its alternative options of trading with India and its fellow ASEAN states, in part due to its rich endowment of natural resources such as gems and luxury timber. Still, the Communist government in Beijing exerts considerable influence on the Burmese military junta. China could have forced the junta into letting in foreign aid after Cyclone Nargis devastated southern Burma, particularly the Delta region, but didn't. It's in China's interest to have a weak Burmese protectorate.

Which leads to ASEAN. The members of the Association of South East Asian Nations are set to form a free trade agreement with China. This will be a debacle for the comparatively small states in ASEAN. They will be flooded with far more cheap Chinese products which will out-compete their native industries, while the agreement will not bring in all that much Chinese foreign investment.

Now, if ASEAN actually worked as a solid unit, functioning as one, ASEAN could benefit from such an FTA with China. ASEAN could rival China. The Association has less people, but is strategically located to take advantage of trade with both China and India, while resource rich Australia is ASEAN's southern neighbor.

But the members of ASEAN don't follow a policy of solidarity. Each member looks out for itself, often to the detriment of the other member states. Pity for them; they will be picked off--at least economically, if not economically and militarily--one by one. As a group, they could challenge China. As individuals they could be crushed by China.

Conclusion

China's neighbors in Northeast and Southeast Asia are wise to closely monitor China and try to either guide its development to a peaceful end, or try to inhibit China's advancement. Japan is advanced and powerful, and has powerful friends (the United States and the EU), but will have to work hard to keep China in check. Small nations have to prepare for the Chinese dragon to snap at them. ASEAN ought to capitalize on their supposed unity and work as one. And ASEAN makes the most poignant point:

If China's neighbors want to keep their 'big brother' in line, they will have to work together, from Japan to Indonesia, from Mongolia to Burma, and work as one to make themselves into a 'bigger brother' that can confront China should the need arise. If they don't they all can look forward to an East Asia ruled from Beijing.



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Mr. Hu's Neighborhood. (Second Part)

In the previous article, the effects of China's rapid rise on Japan were discussed. In this piece, the effects on China's smaller and weaker neighbors will be explored.

Japan is the second largest economy on Earth, and the largest in Asia. It has a population of some 140 million people and one of the most advanced militaries on the planet. Yet even Japan is facing the threat of an ascendant China, a China which is not all that amicable toward Japan, due to historic conflicts and the Communists' using that history to incite antipathy toward Japan to preserve stability at home. However, if Japan--a powerful country--is already being threatened by China, then how much more are the smaller nations in East Asia being threatened? To be discussed below are: South Korea, Mongolia, the Philippines, and Taiwan.

At several points in its history, the Korean Peninsula has been under the thumb of China, either as a protectorate or as a full-fledged Chinese territory. For much of its history, Korea, along with most East Asian nations, was a tributary of China, although in effect this amounted to little more than having a free trade agreement with the Middle Kingdom. (It should be pointed out that economic strong-arming is a form of exertion of power).

South Korea has performed admirably in its recent history, rising from a poor, third world country, to a de facto developed state, even as its once more prosperous northern neighbor has descended into an economic cesspool. With forty million people, South Korea has one of the largest economies in Asia, and easily provides enough food for its people. Yet those forty million people pale in comparison to China's 1.3 billion, and South Korea is practically an island off the coast of China, as the border with North Korea is basically closed. China has used historic precedent to justify its occupation of Tibet, East Turkmenistan (Xinjiang), and Inner Mongolia, and uses historic precedent to argue that it owns the Paracel and Spratly Islands in the South China Sea, although the latter are far from China's borders. A similar use of precedent could be used by China to take over South Korea.

Mongolia has rough relations with China, which it frequently has had for millennia. It bears some similarity to Korea. Mongolia was once part of China--gaining independence as recently as 1921. More to the point, part of 'Mongolia' is already part of China, and dubbed 'Inner Mongolia.' Chinese investment is high in Mongolia, and Mongolia is already economically dependent on that Chinese capital flowing into their country. While it would be natural for China to invest in a poor neighbor, it is also poignant that Mongolia has a tiny population, a fair amount of land, and considerable natural resources. Again using the historic precedent argument, having China take over the remainder of Mongolia is not such a far stretch.

The Philippines, as opposed to the other states mentioned in this article, was not historically a part of China, either as a protectorate or part of China proper. However, the Philippines' relations with China are just as threatening for the Philippines as South Korea's and Mongolia's relations with China are for them. The Philippines was one of the few countries more openly opposed to China's Communist government in the last century, and sent troops in both the Korean and Vietnam Wars, and served as a base in the latter. As with Mongolia, China is a major investor in the Philippines, although the Philippines' receives a relatively small amount of investment due to the perception that it is a highly corrupt country (to be fair, the Philippines in 2007 was not abnormal for its region, according to Transparency International, even though other South East Asian states receive far more foreign investment). Additionally, the Philippines has a sizable number of 'overseas Chinese,' who are not assimilated, and there is a lot of conflict between these ethnic Chinese and ethnic Malay Filipinos. China could invade under the guise of protecting 'their people' from vicious attacks.

Potentially most threatened by China's rise is Taiwan, which much of the world officially considers to be part of China (solely for the purpose of being able to trade with China--another case of economic strong-arming) whilst recognizing Taiwan's de facto sovereignty (currently). As with South Korea, Taiwan was able to turn from a poor, third world country (and one with a high proportion of refugees, to boot) into a developed state. And as with South Korea, Taiwan's small population and close proximity to China put it at risk of invasion. Ruled by China for centuries, the island of Formosa (Taiwan) was ceded to Japan after the Sino-Japanese War, but given to the Republic of China after the defeat of Japan in World War 2. The Taiwanese could validly argue that either their island's future should be decided by Japan (due to the wording of the treaty ending the Sino-Japanese War) or by the Republic of China (which is what Taiwan officially is). However, China definitely does not have to honor that legal basis. Of the countries mentioned here, Taiwan is the one most set to become part of China soon.

From Northeast Asia to Southeast Asia, China's smaller, weaker neighbors are threatened both by China's potential and its bullish attitude both in history and today.

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Mr. Hu's Neighborhood. (First Part)

The day isn't so wonderful in this neighborhood. While much of the world watches the rise of China, few nations are monitoring the ascendancy of China as closely as that country's nearest neighboring countries, the states with the most to lose should a superpower China suddenly turn from generally peaceful to openly hostile to foreign states.

From Japan to Timor, to Mongolia and Burma (and including Tibet and East Turkmenistan/Xinjiang), China's regional neighbors have long experience with dealing with the Middle Kingdom, although for some nations--such as those in the Malay Archipelago--this experience has been diluted by almost a half millennium of Western influence pushing out native pre-Western history and culture. These are nations which have dealt with China for around a millennium or more. And these are the nations, far more than those in the West, Middle East, or Africa, that can most accurately 'read' the actions of the giant in their part of the globe.

It is hard to downplay China's impact in the region's cultural development. Japan, a country which throughout its history was not a part of the Han Chinese Empire, still adopted Chinese characters in its writing system (referred to as kanji in Japanese), and many cultural traits deemed as 'Japanese' in the West are of Chinese origin (for instance, bonsai trees). The pre-Spanish Philippines, largely outside of the Chinese sphere of influence--South East Asia was primarily under the Indic (Indian) sphere of influence--still adopted much from southeastern Chinese cuisine, and Tagalog contains many loanwords from the Hakka (or Fukkian/Fujian) Chinese dialect. And, of course, Korea and Vietnam were both vassal states of China, occasionally considered part of China itself, much the way Tibet and East Turkmenistan are today.

It is Japan that has the most to lose economically and politically from an ascendant China. The second largest economy on Earth, and for over a century the dominant power native to Asia, Tokyo's geopolitical influence is today being challenged by Beijing. In future, China is set to eclipse Japan. Japan, with a decreasing and rapidly aging population and stagnant economic growth, simply will be hard-pressed to compete with China. Militarily, Japan currently has one of the most advanced militaries in the world, but China is speedily catching up in this field, too--in part due to stealing technologies from more advanced nations.

And if Japan is about to become a minnow in a pond where it was the big fish, then what about smaller and less developed states?
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