Mr. Hu's Neighborhood. (Third Part)

In the two preceding articles, the point was made that China's rise is being viewed as a challenge and a threat by the other nations of East Asia. Now will be discussed Asian states which are already under China's thrall or are setting themselves up for it, along with the conclusion to the series.

East Asian countries currently more-or-less free from China's influence are watching their giant neighbor closely for signs of a more belligerent Beijing. And as the Chinese economy expands, China does seem to be taking on a more militant and commanding tone toward its neighbors. But what about states already greatly influenced and dependent on Chinese support, notably North Korea and Burma. The Soviet Union had East Germany and Poland. Communist China has North Korea and Burma.

North Korea is almost completely dependent on China for its survival. Even with Beijing propping it up, the Hermit Kingdom is on the verge of destitution. While North Korea has nuclear weapons--sort of, their attempt did not fully explode--it people are starving to death. The 'Dear Leader' has already ticked off China quite a bit, bringing the United States to look even closer at the region, and pressuring the country to increase an American military--and diplomatic--presence in East Asia. If China becomes too fed up and the current North Korean President dies, China could ignore Kim's successor and just invade North Korea, potentially strongarming Kim into bequeathing his country to China on his deathbed--or say that was the case. As is, North Korea is already currently a de facto Chinese protectorate.

The other country, Burma, is less under the thumb of China, in part due to its alternative options of trading with India and its fellow ASEAN states, in part due to its rich endowment of natural resources such as gems and luxury timber. Still, the Communist government in Beijing exerts considerable influence on the Burmese military junta. China could have forced the junta into letting in foreign aid after Cyclone Nargis devastated southern Burma, particularly the Delta region, but didn't. It's in China's interest to have a weak Burmese protectorate.

Which leads to ASEAN. The members of the Association of South East Asian Nations are set to form a free trade agreement with China. This will be a debacle for the comparatively small states in ASEAN. They will be flooded with far more cheap Chinese products which will out-compete their native industries, while the agreement will not bring in all that much Chinese foreign investment.

Now, if ASEAN actually worked as a solid unit, functioning as one, ASEAN could benefit from such an FTA with China. ASEAN could rival China. The Association has less people, but is strategically located to take advantage of trade with both China and India, while resource rich Australia is ASEAN's southern neighbor.

But the members of ASEAN don't follow a policy of solidarity. Each member looks out for itself, often to the detriment of the other member states. Pity for them; they will be picked off--at least economically, if not economically and militarily--one by one. As a group, they could challenge China. As individuals they could be crushed by China.

Conclusion

China's neighbors in Northeast and Southeast Asia are wise to closely monitor China and try to either guide its development to a peaceful end, or try to inhibit China's advancement. Japan is advanced and powerful, and has powerful friends (the United States and the EU), but will have to work hard to keep China in check. Small nations have to prepare for the Chinese dragon to snap at them. ASEAN ought to capitalize on their supposed unity and work as one. And ASEAN makes the most poignant point:

If China's neighbors want to keep their 'big brother' in line, they will have to work together, from Japan to Indonesia, from Mongolia to Burma, and work as one to make themselves into a 'bigger brother' that can confront China should the need arise. If they don't they all can look forward to an East Asia ruled from Beijing.



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Mr. Hu's Neighborhood. (First Part)

The day isn't so wonderful in this neighborhood. While much of the world watches the rise of China, few nations are monitoring the ascendancy of China as closely as that country's nearest neighboring countries, the states with the most to lose should a superpower China suddenly turn from generally peaceful to openly hostile to foreign states.

From Japan to Timor, to Mongolia and Burma (and including Tibet and East Turkmenistan/Xinjiang), China's regional neighbors have long experience with dealing with the Middle Kingdom, although for some nations--such as those in the Malay Archipelago--this experience has been diluted by almost a half millennium of Western influence pushing out native pre-Western history and culture. These are nations which have dealt with China for around a millennium or more. And these are the nations, far more than those in the West, Middle East, or Africa, that can most accurately 'read' the actions of the giant in their part of the globe.

It is hard to downplay China's impact in the region's cultural development. Japan, a country which throughout its history was not a part of the Han Chinese Empire, still adopted Chinese characters in its writing system (referred to as kanji in Japanese), and many cultural traits deemed as 'Japanese' in the West are of Chinese origin (for instance, bonsai trees). The pre-Spanish Philippines, largely outside of the Chinese sphere of influence--South East Asia was primarily under the Indic (Indian) sphere of influence--still adopted much from southeastern Chinese cuisine, and Tagalog contains many loanwords from the Hakka (or Fukkian/Fujian) Chinese dialect. And, of course, Korea and Vietnam were both vassal states of China, occasionally considered part of China itself, much the way Tibet and East Turkmenistan are today.

It is Japan that has the most to lose economically and politically from an ascendant China. The second largest economy on Earth, and for over a century the dominant power native to Asia, Tokyo's geopolitical influence is today being challenged by Beijing. In future, China is set to eclipse Japan. Japan, with a decreasing and rapidly aging population and stagnant economic growth, simply will be hard-pressed to compete with China. Militarily, Japan currently has one of the most advanced militaries in the world, but China is speedily catching up in this field, too--in part due to stealing technologies from more advanced nations.

And if Japan is about to become a minnow in a pond where it was the big fish, then what about smaller and less developed states?
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The Roadmap to the Future.
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Found this article interesting? Check out:
History: The Roadmap to the Future.
History: The Roadmap to the Future--Africa.
History: The Roadmap to the Future--Asia.
History: The Roadmap to the Future--Europe.
History: The Roadmap to the Future--Latin America.

Or:
The Science Fiction Channel + Technorium.
The Vegetarian Diaries + Biologeel.