A Case for Federalism in the Philippines (Cha-cha).

Reasons why the Philippines should accept Charter Change, 'Cha-cha', and adopt a federal form of government:

The Senate

Under the current plans for federalism, the Philippines will be divided into eleven states. One reason why this is a good idea is that Senators will be chosen to represent, and be elected by, individual regions of the Philippines. Currently, Senators are elected at a nation-wide level, and as a result of this and: the Philippines' geography of being an archipelago of islands (difficulty with traveling between them); ethnic diversity within the Philippines with multiple languages; and the Philippines' low development status, Senators are largely celebrities or relatives in famous Filipino families, and part of the Filipino aristocracy.

If Cha-cha is even roughly based on the American model, then Senators will be voted from each state. Especially notable is that each Senator will have to live in his state, for several years before seeking election. The Manila-based aristocracy could be a tad reluctant to live in poorer parts of the Philippines. A Senator from, type, MINDANAO, would have a greater interest in seeing that the violence in the region stops and that more of an effort to develop his state is put in place by Manila, since his property and life would be at risk. So, if Senators are voted locally and by their own people, they will have more of an interest in developing the state in which they reside. More development in a state, the more safety--because people will have decently paying jobs and tax money will be used more efficiently. The more safety and development, the more wealth (pride for the Senator who gets to boast of how great his state is), and greater clout for the state (and Senator) in Congress (because more people will move there, and the economic impact of the state will be larger). Senators won't just be some rich brats who are practically clueless about what is occurring in far-flung parts of the country, and frankly just have the job for the perks. Instead, the Senators would be drawn from the local populations. The state electorates would stand a greater chance of actually knowing the politician they're voting into office, and the Senator would be directly accountable to his electorate, and would live among them. He'd have pressure on him to deliver. So the Senate would be staffed by people who actually have something to gain or lose depending on how much effort they put into serving the interests of their state.

Shutting up the Muslims

Actually reluctant about this, because judging from global conflicts, Muslims seem to respond to greater autonomy in separatist struggles by deluding themselves into believing their violence was the source of victory, and they then just fight more violently and for more land. That stated, federalism in the Philippines would make the Mindanao Muslims more responsible for their states' development. And hopefully, given that Southeast Asian Muslims tend to be more peaceful than their Arab counterparts, a Muslim majority state in Mindanao will actually bring peace and not more bloodshed. And any majority Muslim Philippine state would still be bound by the rights of all Filipinos to freely worship as they choose. So NO enforcement of sharia involuntarily in any area of life.

(Other) Corruption

Along with the corruption from the Senators--a big issue in the Philippines--being curtailed by federalism, as stated above, federalism will hamper corruption in general, too. States where there is more corruption will perform more poorly (taking into account things such as population, resources, potential, etc.) than states in which there is less corruption. Less corrupt states will attract more business, more people, and have more developed road, water, electrical, rail, etc. systems because taxes will actually be spent on public projects. Corrupt states will lose business, have bad roads, electricity, etc., and because of the loss of business--and population as people migrate to more developed states (free and completely legal migration between states, as opposed to international migration from the Philippines to another country)--corrupt states will receive less and less tax money. Less tax money would lead to less income for corrupt politicians and officials lining their pockets with taxpayers' pesos. Tack onto this that the electorates of badly performing states will demand progress and the same developmental status as the more advanced states. Eventually, corrupt state officials will be forced to clamp down on corruption if they want to make any money, and will have more incentive to reduce corruption in their state. They won't be able to blame far-off Manila as much; the state governments will be more accountable.

LINKS

"Solon stresses PGMA's advocacy on federalism is not...." "Renewed calls for Charter Change not...." "Senate resolution on Charter Change caught Malacanang by surprise" "Palace distances from Charter change issue"

Arroyo's Term

Some have argued that federalism will allow President Arroyo to remain in office longer. Personally don't see this, but even if that is the case, so what? Under Arroyo, the Philippine government has undertaken massive and necessary tax reform which has brought more money into the government so that the government can spend more on much-needed roads, energy, sanitation, and other construction projects. And even with the fishy Internet network deal with China, Arroyo is definitely no more corrupt than many of the Filipino Senators. Even if federalism gives Arroyo a few more years, the benefit of a federal Philippines more than makes up for a little more of Arroyo (by a long shot).


So, in conclusion......

Actually would support Arroyo's apparently earlier vision of a Philippines with a parliamentary, unicameral system of government moreso than federalism*, but as that no longer seems to be a choice, federalism in the Philippines is still a huge step up from the current system which makes it far too easy for politicians and government workers to be corrupt or incompetent (or both) and drive the Philippine economy and development into the ground. Federalism provides the opportunity for a more locally-attuned and locally-driven Philippines where officials will be held more accountable for how they govern.

*Even more than a unicameral legislature, would especially support the Philippines ditching democracy altogether and becoming an authoritarian society until the country is developed. But fat chance of that happening.
wall.

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Reasons Why ASEAN Should Integrate.

To Economically Compete with China and India.

Individually, no member state of ASEAN, the Association of South East Asian Nations, even Indonesia, can compete with China or India, countries which have around a fifth of the world's population each. Foreign investors are drawn to the enormous market potential of China and India to the detriment of Southeast Asian nations, which are in essence overlooked. More investment brings more money with which to build more infrastructure which makes more jobs which those countries' large populations are eager to fill for low pay, which brings more investment which brings more money, etc. etc. Southeast Asia, with smaller markets and populations, is no longer part of this loop, and were unable to develop sufficiently enough in the 1980s and 1990s the way South Korea and Taiwan did to be capable of standing on their own feet without large amounts of foreign investment today.

However, if ASEAN became a fully integrated economic bloc (note, even the European Union has not attained this status yet), ASEAN would still be smaller than China and India, but would still have a much larger population than even Indonesia, with a combined population over 600 million for all ten states. The region would still straddle the strategic location between Northeast and South Asia, and the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Maritime trade from Europe, Africa, South and Southwestern Asia to Northeast Asia would travel through the Strait of Malacca and the South China Sea, and vice versa. The region would produce enough food for all of ASEAN. Thailand and Vietnam are major rice exporters, while the Philippines and Indonesia now import the staple. Although many ASEAN states are reluctant to eradicate tariffs between themselves, being of the opinion that their neighbors would be competitors and not allies, ASEAN as a fully-integrated bloc would be able to withstand Chinese, Indian, American, and European pressure, and would be able to distribute the economic growth of all member states of the association so that all members develop.

To Stand Their Ground Against Chinese or Indian Aggression.

The benefit of a unified ASEAN has already been shown in the dispute over ownership of the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea. China would have been able to pressure any of the Southeast Asian contenders for all or part of the island group. However, rather than deliberating with China on an individual basis, ASEAN was chosen to deal with China--and was able to force China into a less belligerent stance.

China and India are both nuclear powers with the two largest militaries in the world which also happen to be among the most powerful militaries on Earth, too. Traditionally and so far, Southeast Asian nations' habit is to be submissive to their giant neighbors and 'not make waves.'

Yet this may not be an option in some cases. Although Vietnam was able to repel a Chinese invasion, that was when China was much poorer than today. Together, a militarily unified ASEAN could defend its members, sandwiched as they are between China and India. Even indirectly, if China and India wage war with each other, they would be bound to either try to bend Southeast Asia into becoming allies, or would be more ruthless and just try to invade Southeast Asia and use it as a staging ground from which to attack their enemy (China or India). Southeast Asia doesn't have to be pushed around if they are big enough to withstand India or China.

To Engender Internal Peace.

One of ASEAN's original goals, a more unified and integrated ASEAN would be able to erase the idea that one Southeast Asian country would wage war with another Southeast Asian country. The Philippines and Malaysia have a dispute over Sabah. Malaysia and Singapore have a dispute over an islet. Several ASEAN states have disputes over the Spratly and Paracel Islands, along with China and Taiwan. For a completely integrated ASEAN, hostilities over these disputes would be as muted as border disputes between California and Nevada or Kentucky and Tennessee.

If some Muslims in Malaysia and Indonesia become radicalized, while they might be a major force in their own countries, for all of ASEAN, those Islamists would only be a minority.

A unified ASEAN could also lead to the end of the military junta in Burma, the Communist regimes in Vietnam and Laos, the autocracies in Singapore, Cambodia, Brunei, and Malaysia, and the corrupt democracies in the Philippines, Indonesia, and Thailand. The ASEAN government could draw from the good aspects of the members--such as the efficiency and order of Singapore and the democracy of Thailand--while excising the bad aspects of the current governments. The states could draw from their collective advantages and minimize their political shortcomings.

Conclusion

The member states of ASEAN have many obstacles to overcome. They are divided by history, religion, and culture. Many of them view the others as competitors rather than partners who can mutually help each other develop. Besides Singapore, there is a general lack of interest among most ASEAN state governments for strong integration of the association. However, for the sake of all Southeast Asia, a unified ASEAN is in the interest of all ten ASEAN states: Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, Singapore, Vietnam, Laos, Burma, and Cambodia. Divided they will all be much weaker than they would be united.

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Review of "Are Asians Racist?"

Although quite dated (1999), this Australian Broadcasting Corporation transcript of a speech titled, "Are Asians Racist?" is in general a superb first overview of East Asian racism for those unfamiliar with the subject, though it--as the speaker acknowledges--only scratches the surface on racism in Asia.

The piece accurately points out that racism is more endemic in Northeast Asia, referred to as North Asia in the piece. Also picked up on is that Japan and Korea especially can be singled out for having large levels of racism that pervades their societies. China is also mentioned in this group, but the criticism is less pointed.

In contrast, Southeast Asia is considered, in the speech, to be less racist than Northeast Asia, but also more communalist; that is, there is a fair amount of discrimination along culturally ethnic lines, rather than genetically racial ones. Malaysia is depicted as the major communalist country in the region, while Singapore, the Philippines, and Thailand are portrayed as somewhat less prejudiced about ethnicity.

The speech makes note of the fact that across East Asia the group facing the most racism is that of 'blacks,' who are subject--to varying degrees--in both Northeast and Southeast Asia.

There are a few, relatively minor, inaccuracies, however. For instance, pointing to massacres of ethnic Chinese in the Philippines as being a case of communalism. While some were due to resentment of the Chinese' relative economic success (as a group) in the Philippines, a huge number of those ethnic Chinese massacred were killed because of Chinese uprising against Spanish rule (the Philippines was a Spanish possession from the 1500s to 1898). Although the ethnic Chinese might have been directly killed by Filipinos, it was on orders from Spanish officers and the Spanish colonial government. Nor were those particular massacres borne of nativist resentment against the ethnic 'foreigners,' but were the military response to insurrections which occasionally flared up in the ethnic Chinese community.

Overall, the speech was excellent, and ended on an extremely pertinent point: Asians are human, and all human groups have difficulties surrounding the concept of racism. Asians, Africans, Europeans, Amerindians, etc. all share with each other both their virtues and their disgraces.


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Filipinos Are Asian--Get Used to It.

There seems to be a common misconception in the United States and Asia, and probably--to some extent--in the rest of the world, that Filipinos are not Asian, but are instead Pacific Islanders. Ironically, major proponents of this view are so-called Filipino Americans. That Filipinos are Asian should not even be an issue that is up for debate at all. This article will try to set some things straight.

Geography


The CIA World Factbook locates the Republic of the Philippines as being in "Southeastern Asia, archipelago between the Philippine Sea and the South China Sea, east of Vietnam." The Merriam-Webster Dictionary defines the Philippines as, "country E Asia comprising the Philippine Islands; a republic; once a Spanish possession & (1898–1946) a United States possession capital Manila." The archipelago comprising the Philippines is indisputably a part of Asia. Insular Southeast Asia, to be specific. If you don't believe the map provided here, then look at a world map or a globe. The Philippines' direct northern neighbor is Taiwan, with Japan (via the Ryukyus) just a little off to the northeast. China (mainland) is to the northwest. Those are not only considered Asian, but Northeast Asian. Malaysia is to the southeast. And the Moluccas (part of Indonesia) is to Mindanao's south. The Philippines is on the eastern edge of the South China Sea, the same as with Taiwan, insular Malaysia, and Brunei. Yes, the Philippines is located on islands in the Pacific Ocean. Taiwan is an island in the Pacific Ocean. Japan is located on islands in the Pacific Ocean. Korea and China both have islands in the Pacific Ocean. And the bulk of the Southeast Asian population lives on islands in the Pacific Ocean. Yet these countries' peoples are not Pacific Islanders. Nor are the Philippines' people. Filipinos are not Pacific Islanders. From a geographic standpoint, you cannot argue that the Philippines is not a part of Asia.

Ethnicity
The typical Filipino is of the Malay ethnicity, the same as Malaysians, Indonesians, and people in Brunei. Genetically, Filipinos of Luzon (the largest and most populous island in the Philippines) have a genetic affinity with native peoples of Taiwan. In addition to the Malay majority, there are Aeta (who are Melanesoid--which is not the same as Australoid), Chinese, and European minorities.

Filipino culture is easily the most Western of all 'Eastern' countries. However, Filipinos still retain much of their pre-Spanish culture, notably the languages, ranging from Tagalog to Cebuano to Ingorot, which are closely related to languages on the island of Borneo. The Filipino cuisine, while having considerable Malay traits, is heavily Chinese influenced, for instance, lumpia. The copious use of sugar, plantains, and coconut milk in recipes ties the food of the Philippines to both mainland and insular Southeast Asia.

Now, it is the case that Philippine languages are part of the Austronesian (not be confused with Australian/Australoid) language family, which is spoken from Taiwan to Indonesia to Vietnam and Thailand to Madagascar to Hawaii. A few researchers consider Japanese, Korean, the Austro-Asiatic (Southeast Asian), Thai-Kadai, or even Sino-Tibetan languages to be related to Austronesian, either as individuals, or as a great, East Asian language family. However, the spread of this language family (and civilization) was from Asia (particularly Taiwan) to Polynesia (and Africa in the case of Madagascar), not the other way around. Saying that Filipinos are Pacific Islanders is (although the time frame is wider) akin to saying that Northeast Asians are Amerindians; you could argue that Amerindians are Northeast Asians (a stretch), but not the other way around. To use a shorter time frame, saying that Filipinos are Pacific Islanders is akin to stating that Europeans are pan-Americans, or even mestizos, depending on whether or not Polynesians have Melanesian genes; Europeans are not from the Americas, but many pan-Americans can trace their lineage to Europe. Filipinos are not from the Pacific Islands, but many Pacific Islanders can trace their lineage to (what is now) the Philippines.

Ethnically, the Filipinos are Asian.

History

Historically, the case for Filipinos being Asian is strong. The Philippines are considered to have first been settled by the ancestors of the Aetas, who came from Southeast Asia (the Aeta bear similarities to the Orang Asli of the Malay Peninsula--on mainland Asia). The bulk of the population is descended from immigrants from Taiwan, the original Austronesians, the preponderance of whom have now become to be referred to as 'Malay.' (Other Austronesian groups include the natives of Taiwan, the Cham of Vietnam, Cambodia, and Thailand, and peoples on China's Hainan Island). The ancestors of the Malay Filipinos arrived a few millennia ago, and brought with them rice cultivation and domesticated pigs, dogs, and chickens.

What is now the Philippines was part of an ancient Southeast Asian trade network in jade from Taiwan being distributed to lands in the Philippines, Vietnam, and Thailand. The advent of bronze in the Philippines (around 500BC) and the beginning of the Philippine Iron Age (around 200BC) are considered to have occurred due to contact and trade with Southeast Asia--the short time frame between the smelting of bronze and iron suggests this, along with tin--required for bronze--not being found in large quantities in the Philippines. 200BC is also when some believe first Philippine contact with Indians (from India) was achieved, and trade started. AD900 is the date of the Laguna Copperplate Inscription. The writing is written in Kavi, a Javanese (Indonesian) script, which traces it lineage to Indic writing systems. Personally question the authenticity of this artifact. If genuine, then technically Philippine history would begin in AD900 (history begins when there are written records). However, when the Spanish arrived, only Tagalogs were using writing, and that writing was Baybayin (also referred to as alibata), a writing system that was not as efficient at writing down Tagalog as Kavi. Baybayin is considered to have come into existence around AD1200 at the earliest. If the artifact is authentic, then why wasn't writing more widespread when the Spaniards arrived, and why was the writing system not based directly on Kavi and capable of accurately expressing spoken Tagalog in written form?

Anyway, the first Chinese records of Filipinos (from Luzon, or Luzones) are dated to around this time, and the first written Chinese records of the Philippines a bit afterwards. By the advent of the Spanish, Sino-Philippine trade was such that the Philippines were flooded with Chinese porcelain and the Filipinos were no longer mining their own iron ore (though they still smelted and fashioned it). A note about the bad points of globalization: the Philippine pottery industry was retarded because local artisans couldn't compete with cheaper but more sophisticated Chinese ware, and importing old iron instruments or raw iron ore from China was cheaper than mining the stuff in the Philippines. Also, when the Spaniards arrived, the Philippines was in trade contact with Japan.

The Philippines traded with other Asian states and peoples since antiquity, during foreign, Western rule, and still trade with other Asian nations today.

Conclusion

Above, it has been shown that from a geographic, ethnic, and historic point of view, the Philippines and Filipinos are clearly Asian. That is not up for questioning. It is just a fact. Just as much as Chinese, Japanese, or Vietnamese, Filipinos are Asian.

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Mr. Hu's Neighborhood. (Third Part)

In the two preceding articles, the point was made that China's rise is being viewed as a challenge and a threat by the other nations of East Asia. Now will be discussed Asian states which are already under China's thrall or are setting themselves up for it, along with the conclusion to the series.

East Asian countries currently more-or-less free from China's influence are watching their giant neighbor closely for signs of a more belligerent Beijing. And as the Chinese economy expands, China does seem to be taking on a more militant and commanding tone toward its neighbors. But what about states already greatly influenced and dependent on Chinese support, notably North Korea and Burma. The Soviet Union had East Germany and Poland. Communist China has North Korea and Burma.

North Korea is almost completely dependent on China for its survival. Even with Beijing propping it up, the Hermit Kingdom is on the verge of destitution. While North Korea has nuclear weapons--sort of, their attempt did not fully explode--it people are starving to death. The 'Dear Leader' has already ticked off China quite a bit, bringing the United States to look even closer at the region, and pressuring the country to increase an American military--and diplomatic--presence in East Asia. If China becomes too fed up and the current North Korean President dies, China could ignore Kim's successor and just invade North Korea, potentially strongarming Kim into bequeathing his country to China on his deathbed--or say that was the case. As is, North Korea is already currently a de facto Chinese protectorate.

The other country, Burma, is less under the thumb of China, in part due to its alternative options of trading with India and its fellow ASEAN states, in part due to its rich endowment of natural resources such as gems and luxury timber. Still, the Communist government in Beijing exerts considerable influence on the Burmese military junta. China could have forced the junta into letting in foreign aid after Cyclone Nargis devastated southern Burma, particularly the Delta region, but didn't. It's in China's interest to have a weak Burmese protectorate.

Which leads to ASEAN. The members of the Association of South East Asian Nations are set to form a free trade agreement with China. This will be a debacle for the comparatively small states in ASEAN. They will be flooded with far more cheap Chinese products which will out-compete their native industries, while the agreement will not bring in all that much Chinese foreign investment.

Now, if ASEAN actually worked as a solid unit, functioning as one, ASEAN could benefit from such an FTA with China. ASEAN could rival China. The Association has less people, but is strategically located to take advantage of trade with both China and India, while resource rich Australia is ASEAN's southern neighbor.

But the members of ASEAN don't follow a policy of solidarity. Each member looks out for itself, often to the detriment of the other member states. Pity for them; they will be picked off--at least economically, if not economically and militarily--one by one. As a group, they could challenge China. As individuals they could be crushed by China.

Conclusion

China's neighbors in Northeast and Southeast Asia are wise to closely monitor China and try to either guide its development to a peaceful end, or try to inhibit China's advancement. Japan is advanced and powerful, and has powerful friends (the United States and the EU), but will have to work hard to keep China in check. Small nations have to prepare for the Chinese dragon to snap at them. ASEAN ought to capitalize on their supposed unity and work as one. And ASEAN makes the most poignant point:

If China's neighbors want to keep their 'big brother' in line, they will have to work together, from Japan to Indonesia, from Mongolia to Burma, and work as one to make themselves into a 'bigger brother' that can confront China should the need arise. If they don't they all can look forward to an East Asia ruled from Beijing.



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Mr. Hu's Neighborhood. (Second Part)

In the previous article, the effects of China's rapid rise on Japan were discussed. In this piece, the effects on China's smaller and weaker neighbors will be explored.

Japan is the second largest economy on Earth, and the largest in Asia. It has a population of some 140 million people and one of the most advanced militaries on the planet. Yet even Japan is facing the threat of an ascendant China, a China which is not all that amicable toward Japan, due to historic conflicts and the Communists' using that history to incite antipathy toward Japan to preserve stability at home. However, if Japan--a powerful country--is already being threatened by China, then how much more are the smaller nations in East Asia being threatened? To be discussed below are: South Korea, Mongolia, the Philippines, and Taiwan.

At several points in its history, the Korean Peninsula has been under the thumb of China, either as a protectorate or as a full-fledged Chinese territory. For much of its history, Korea, along with most East Asian nations, was a tributary of China, although in effect this amounted to little more than having a free trade agreement with the Middle Kingdom. (It should be pointed out that economic strong-arming is a form of exertion of power).

South Korea has performed admirably in its recent history, rising from a poor, third world country, to a de facto developed state, even as its once more prosperous northern neighbor has descended into an economic cesspool. With forty million people, South Korea has one of the largest economies in Asia, and easily provides enough food for its people. Yet those forty million people pale in comparison to China's 1.3 billion, and South Korea is practically an island off the coast of China, as the border with North Korea is basically closed. China has used historic precedent to justify its occupation of Tibet, East Turkmenistan (Xinjiang), and Inner Mongolia, and uses historic precedent to argue that it owns the Paracel and Spratly Islands in the South China Sea, although the latter are far from China's borders. A similar use of precedent could be used by China to take over South Korea.

Mongolia has rough relations with China, which it frequently has had for millennia. It bears some similarity to Korea. Mongolia was once part of China--gaining independence as recently as 1921. More to the point, part of 'Mongolia' is already part of China, and dubbed 'Inner Mongolia.' Chinese investment is high in Mongolia, and Mongolia is already economically dependent on that Chinese capital flowing into their country. While it would be natural for China to invest in a poor neighbor, it is also poignant that Mongolia has a tiny population, a fair amount of land, and considerable natural resources. Again using the historic precedent argument, having China take over the remainder of Mongolia is not such a far stretch.

The Philippines, as opposed to the other states mentioned in this article, was not historically a part of China, either as a protectorate or part of China proper. However, the Philippines' relations with China are just as threatening for the Philippines as South Korea's and Mongolia's relations with China are for them. The Philippines was one of the few countries more openly opposed to China's Communist government in the last century, and sent troops in both the Korean and Vietnam Wars, and served as a base in the latter. As with Mongolia, China is a major investor in the Philippines, although the Philippines' receives a relatively small amount of investment due to the perception that it is a highly corrupt country (to be fair, the Philippines in 2007 was not abnormal for its region, according to Transparency International, even though other South East Asian states receive far more foreign investment). Additionally, the Philippines has a sizable number of 'overseas Chinese,' who are not assimilated, and there is a lot of conflict between these ethnic Chinese and ethnic Malay Filipinos. China could invade under the guise of protecting 'their people' from vicious attacks.

Potentially most threatened by China's rise is Taiwan, which much of the world officially considers to be part of China (solely for the purpose of being able to trade with China--another case of economic strong-arming) whilst recognizing Taiwan's de facto sovereignty (currently). As with South Korea, Taiwan was able to turn from a poor, third world country (and one with a high proportion of refugees, to boot) into a developed state. And as with South Korea, Taiwan's small population and close proximity to China put it at risk of invasion. Ruled by China for centuries, the island of Formosa (Taiwan) was ceded to Japan after the Sino-Japanese War, but given to the Republic of China after the defeat of Japan in World War 2. The Taiwanese could validly argue that either their island's future should be decided by Japan (due to the wording of the treaty ending the Sino-Japanese War) or by the Republic of China (which is what Taiwan officially is). However, China definitely does not have to honor that legal basis. Of the countries mentioned here, Taiwan is the one most set to become part of China soon.

From Northeast Asia to Southeast Asia, China's smaller, weaker neighbors are threatened both by China's potential and its bullish attitude both in history and today.

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Mr. Hu's Neighborhood. (First Part)

The day isn't so wonderful in this neighborhood. While much of the world watches the rise of China, few nations are monitoring the ascendancy of China as closely as that country's nearest neighboring countries, the states with the most to lose should a superpower China suddenly turn from generally peaceful to openly hostile to foreign states.

From Japan to Timor, to Mongolia and Burma (and including Tibet and East Turkmenistan/Xinjiang), China's regional neighbors have long experience with dealing with the Middle Kingdom, although for some nations--such as those in the Malay Archipelago--this experience has been diluted by almost a half millennium of Western influence pushing out native pre-Western history and culture. These are nations which have dealt with China for around a millennium or more. And these are the nations, far more than those in the West, Middle East, or Africa, that can most accurately 'read' the actions of the giant in their part of the globe.

It is hard to downplay China's impact in the region's cultural development. Japan, a country which throughout its history was not a part of the Han Chinese Empire, still adopted Chinese characters in its writing system (referred to as kanji in Japanese), and many cultural traits deemed as 'Japanese' in the West are of Chinese origin (for instance, bonsai trees). The pre-Spanish Philippines, largely outside of the Chinese sphere of influence--South East Asia was primarily under the Indic (Indian) sphere of influence--still adopted much from southeastern Chinese cuisine, and Tagalog contains many loanwords from the Hakka (or Fukkian/Fujian) Chinese dialect. And, of course, Korea and Vietnam were both vassal states of China, occasionally considered part of China itself, much the way Tibet and East Turkmenistan are today.

It is Japan that has the most to lose economically and politically from an ascendant China. The second largest economy on Earth, and for over a century the dominant power native to Asia, Tokyo's geopolitical influence is today being challenged by Beijing. In future, China is set to eclipse Japan. Japan, with a decreasing and rapidly aging population and stagnant economic growth, simply will be hard-pressed to compete with China. Militarily, Japan currently has one of the most advanced militaries in the world, but China is speedily catching up in this field, too--in part due to stealing technologies from more advanced nations.

And if Japan is about to become a minnow in a pond where it was the big fish, then what about smaller and less developed states?
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